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Inflation is a tricky thing as it sometimes causes depreciation of a currency and sometimes is arises out of the depreciation of a currency.The inflation was in double digits back in 2013 and hit a high of 12.17percent in Nov 2013, we are nowhere near to that currently, with inflation comfortably under 5percent. The only factor which is close to levels of stress in 2013 is the trade deficit which is now close to $18 billion just shy of $19.37 billion in May 2013, and peak of $20.21 billion of October 2012.The major reasons behind this surge in trade deficit is the rise in the Crude oil price, Brent crude is now trading near $78 in 2018 against $58 seen in September last year a move of over 34percent.Since Mid 2017, the long term import contracts get re priced we are witnessing the lag effects of the rise on the import bill for recent months. Despite that, crude remains second on the import growth numbers which istopped by of gems and jewellery sector which has topped with fastest growth YoY.Surprisingly according to world gold council data the demand for gold in India has declined by 8percent in Q2 CY2018, and the import Cheap Moncler growth is triggered by the precious stones causing capital flight through the sector.We have also seen a steep decline in agricultural exports as the subdued global prices for commodities like Sugar, Soymeal have limited our options to export, and we have also lost some of our market for textiles to competition.

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